Bitcoin’s halving mechanism reduces the block reward miners receive by 50% approximately every 210,000 blocks (~4 years), enforcing Bitcoin’s 21 million supply cap. Four halvings have occurred to date. Each halving has historically preceded a major bull market within 12–18 months, though correlation vs. causation remains debated. This page documents all four halvings in detail.
Halving 1 — November 28, 2012
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| Block Height | 210,000 |
| Date | November 28, 2012 |
| Block Reward Before | 50 BTC |
| Block Reward After | 25 BTC |
| BTC Price at Halving | ~$12 |
| BTC Price 12 Months Later | ~$1,000 (+8,233%) |
| BTC Price 18 Months Later | ~$650 (after first major crash from $1,242) |
The 2012 halving occurred largely unnoticed by mainstream media. Bitcoin was a niche interest, but the subsequent year saw BTC rise from $12 to over $1,000 before crashing to ~$200 in the first “crypto winter.” The 2012 halving established the pattern of post-halving bull runs.
Halving 2 — July 9, 2016
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| Block Height | 420,000 |
| Date | July 9, 2016 |
| Block Reward Before | 25 BTC |
| Block Reward After | 12.5 BTC |
| BTC Price at Halving | ~$650 |
| BTC Price 12 Months Later | ~$2,500 (+285%) |
| BTC Price 18 Months Later | ~$19,783 (+2,943%) |
The 2016 halving received moderate media attention. Bitcoin’s price had already begun rising in anticipation. The 18-month post-halving run to $19,783 (December 2017) became the defining bull market of crypto’s adolescence, bringing millions of retail investors into the space and fueling the ICO boom.
Halving 3 — May 11, 2020
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| Block Height | 630,000 |
| Date | May 11, 2020 |
| Block Reward Before | 12.5 BTC |
| Block Reward After | 6.25 BTC |
| BTC Price at Halving | ~$8,600 |
| BTC Price 12 Months Later | ~$57,000 (+563%) |
| BTC Price 18 Months Later | ~$69,044 ATH (November 2021) (+703%) |
The 2020 halving occurred during the COVID-19 pandemic. Institutional adoption — led by MicroStrategy, Square, and Tesla — drove the subsequent bull market alongside DeFi summer and NFT mania. Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $69,044 in November 2021, approximately 18 months post-halving.
Halving 4 — April 19, 2024
| Field | Detail |
|---|---|
| Block Height | 840,000 |
| Date | April 19, 2024 |
| Block Reward Before | 6.25 BTC |
| Block Reward After | 3.125 BTC |
| BTC Price at Halving | ~$63,700 |
| BTC Price 6 Months Later | ~$67,000 (+5%) |
| Current Block Reward | 3.125 BTC |
The 2024 halving was preceded by a Bitcoin ETF approval-driven rally (January 2024 BTC ETFs began trading in the US). Unlike previous halvings, Bitcoin had already reached new ATHs before the halving occurred — partially due to ETF demand absorbing supply. The post-halving pattern is still unfolding.
Next Halving
Estimated date: ~April–May 2028
Block height: 1,050,000
Reward after: 1.5625 BTC
The final halving where block rewards will be non-trivial in USD terms at current prices. After approximately 2140, all 21 million BTC will have been mined and miners will rely solely on transaction fees.
The “Stock-to-Flow” Debate
Analyst PlanB’s Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model predicted post-halving prices based on Bitcoin’s scarcity ratio. The model correctly called $100K by end of 2021 in early versions but missed badly in 2022. Most economists view S2F as unfalsifiable curve-fitting rather than a predictive model, though halving-driven supply shocks remain a widely accepted factor in price cycles.
Research
- Nakamoto, S. (2008). “Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System.”
- Biais, B., Bisière, C., Bouvard, M., & Casamatta, C. (2019). “The Blockchain Folk Theorem.” Review of Financial Studies, 32(5).
- PlanB (2019). “Modeling Bitcoin Value with Scarcity.” Medium/Twitter.
- Morisse, M. (2015). “Cryptocurrencies and Bitcoin: Charting an Economic Long-Run.” SSRN.
- Coinbase Institutional Research (2024). “The Fourth Bitcoin Halving.”