Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) measures Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization as a percentage. It is one of the most widely tracked metrics in crypto market analysis, used to identify macro market cycles and determine whether capital is rotating from Bitcoin to altcoins or vice versa.
Formula:
$$text{BTC Dominance} = frac{text{Bitcoin Market Cap}}{text{Total Crypto Market Cap}} times 100$$
Historical Dominance Levels
| Period | BTC Dominance | Context |
|---|---|---|
| 2013 (early) | ~95% | Only Bitcoin and a few alts |
| 2017 peak bull | ~35% | ICO boom, ETH surging |
| 2019 recovery | ~65% | Bear market, alts collapsing |
| 2020–2021 | 40–70% | DeFi summer, altcoin bull |
| 2023 | ~50–55% | ETF anticipation, alts weak |
| 2024–2025 | 55–60%+ | Institutional Bitcoin buying |
Interpreting Dominance
Rising BTC Dominance:
- BTC outperforming altcoins
- Risk-off signal — investors prefer safety of BTC
- Often seen in bear markets or early bull phases
- Can result from: BTC ETF inflows, macro uncertainty, altcoin implosions
Falling BTC Dominance:
- Altcoins outperforming BTC
- Capital rotating from BTC into riskier alts
- Classic signal for “altcoin season”
- Often seen in mid-to-late bull markets
Altcoin Season Index
CoinMarketCap and TradingView track a related metric: the “Altcoin Season Index” — which quantifies how many of the top 50 altcoins outperformed Bitcoin over 90 days. High altcoin season readings correlate with falling BTC dominance.
Criticism of Dominance as a Metric
- Stablecoin inflation: Rising stablecoin supply dilutes dominance calculations
- De-listed tokens: Dead projects with zero volume still affect total market cap
- Narrative lag: Dominance is a lagging indicator — altseason is often identified after it starts
Many analysts use “ETH dominance” or “altcoin dominance” (excluding stablecoins) as more meaningful alternatives.
Sources
- CoinMarketCap Global Charts: coinmarketcap.com/charts
- TradingView BTC.D chart
- Glassnode: Bitcoin market cap analysis